2010 Turnout: Quantifying the Quandary

Will 2010 disprove everything we thought we knew about elections? Will even reliable Democrats stay home while sporadically-voting Republicans surge? Can we even predict anything about voting in 2010 or are the political winds blowing so strongly that even our most firmly held assumptions will fall?

In this original research from the New Organizing Institute, we look at historical election results, exit polls, and voting trends in an effort to calm the storm of conjecture surrounding the 2010 election. While some things about voting in 2010 will be truly unique, other patterns we observe are clearly consistent with past midterms elections.

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Key Findings:

• African-Americans in particular, and Democrats in general, are likely to stay home at greater rates than in past midterm elections.

• The "enthusiasm gap" likely portends impressive gains for Republicans this cycle, but not from the source you might expect.

• Consistent with previous midterm elections, young people and recent movers will likely vote at very low rates in 2010 compared to their participation in 2008.

For the science behind these findings, and much more about what to expect in 2010, read our full report "2010 Turnout: Quantifying the Quandary."

NOI 2010 Turnout

Crowd photo by jvoves.